Frequent readers of this blog know that I don't pick short films or documentaries because a.) I don't see them and can't make judgements and b.) they tend to ruin my average.
I would, however, like to pick the Animated Feature category. The nominees are How To Train Your Dragon, The Illusionist, and Toy Story 3. With its Best Picture and Screenplay nominations, Toy Story 3 is the obvious choice.
This might be the clearest sure thing in this year's Oscars.