Oscar Night is tomorrow! If you're like me, you'll clear your schedule and start watching the red carpet coverage at about noon. The show starts at 8:00pm on ABC. I'm expecting a young, modern show and it's my hope that enigmatic Documentary Feature nominee Banksy contributes to the sets.
Below, you'll find my final picks for the 2010 Academy Awards. I've made a few changes from my initial picks. Melissa Leo has been campaigning hard for Best Supporting Actress and has racked up several awards, but after seeing the movies, I'm sticking to my initial pick of Hailee Steinfeld in True Grit. She really had a lead role - bigger than Jeff Bridges - and I think she'll walk away with the Oscar.
I previously picked Alice In Wonderland for Costumes and Art Direction, but, looking over my predictions, I only picked The King's Speech for two, including Best Picture, and that makes me nervous. No Best Picture since Rebecca has earned so few. I suspect that the artistic merits of The King's Speech will be its best shot at a higher total, so I'm changing my picks.
Otherwise, things are pretty much the same. I'm predicting four wins for Inception and The King's Speech and two each for True Grit and The Social Network. Seven other movies will each take one. Sorry, Winter's Bone - you were one of my favorite movies of the year, but you're destined to be the only Best Picture nominee to go home empty-handed. I'm confident in my picks for the acting awards - especially Supporting Actor - but those artistic and technical categories always have a way of biting me. I'm most worried about Cinematography, Costumes, and Art Direction.
Best Picture: The King's Speech
Best Director: David Fincher, The Social Network
Best Actor: Colin Firth, The King's Speech
Best Actress: Natalie Portman, Black Swan
Best Supporting Actor: Christian Bale, The Fighter
Best Supporting Actress: Hailee Steinfeld, True Grit
Best Original Screenplay: The Kids Are All Right
Best Adapted Screenplay: The Social Network
Best Animated Feature: Toy Story 3
Best Cinematography: True Grit
Best Editing: 127 Hours
Best Score: Inception
Best Song: "Coming Home" Country Strong
Best Art Direction: The King's Speech
Best Costumes: The King's Speech
Best Makeup: The Wolfman
Best Visual Effects: Inception
Best Sound: Inception
Best Sound Effects Editing: Inception
Saturday, February 26, 2011
Friday, February 25, 2011
Best Picture
I rather like the ten-nominee system of the past few years. It's allowed some interesting films to get recognition when they normally wouldn't. So here are the ten Best Picture nominees and my assessment of their Best Picture changes:
1. Toy Story 3: A solid film, but animation is still struggling to gain equal acceptance with live-action films. Its a shoo-in for Best Animated Feature, which will be the extent of its wins.
2. Winter's Bone: One of my favorites of the year. Fantastic acting, a real, gritty sense of danger, and an excellent surprise. It doesn't stand a chance.
3. 127 Hours: In short, it's too gruesome to win Best Picture.
4. Inception: Popular, yes, but it's dense as granite and it's sci-fi, which traditionally cleans up in the technical categories and gets overshadowed in the Best Picture race.
5. Black Swan: Too crazy to win.
6. The Kids Are All Right: It's a talky, character-driven family drama with a bitter touch of comedy. All bode well, but it's missing the epic quality of some of its contenders. Just like Little Miss Sunshine and Juno, it's more attractive as a Screenplay winner than as a Best Picture.
7. The Fighter: This one is really an acting showcase. Melissa Leo has a strong shot at Supporting Actress and there's no way Christian Bale can lose Best Supporting Actor, but the movie as a whole is all over the place.
8. True Grit: A real contender. As I wrote in an earlier post, it's the least-awful Coen Brothers movie. It's a big story in a big setting with big characters, but perhaps the actors are getting more attention than the film itself.
9. The Social Network: It has up-to-the-minute relevance and tells a compelling story, but I feel that its screenplay is the real star, rather than the actors or directing. Also, from a visual standpoint, it's not much to look at.
10. The King's Speech: It's a period historical drama tempered with appropriate levity, it deals with epic events on an intimate scale, and it's filled with notable performances. And the costumes and sets are top-notch. The King's Speech fulfills every criteria for a Best Picture and, unless voters decide to get all modern and edgy this year, I think it will win Best Picture.
1. Toy Story 3: A solid film, but animation is still struggling to gain equal acceptance with live-action films. Its a shoo-in for Best Animated Feature, which will be the extent of its wins.
2. Winter's Bone: One of my favorites of the year. Fantastic acting, a real, gritty sense of danger, and an excellent surprise. It doesn't stand a chance.
3. 127 Hours: In short, it's too gruesome to win Best Picture.
4. Inception: Popular, yes, but it's dense as granite and it's sci-fi, which traditionally cleans up in the technical categories and gets overshadowed in the Best Picture race.
5. Black Swan: Too crazy to win.
6. The Kids Are All Right: It's a talky, character-driven family drama with a bitter touch of comedy. All bode well, but it's missing the epic quality of some of its contenders. Just like Little Miss Sunshine and Juno, it's more attractive as a Screenplay winner than as a Best Picture.
7. The Fighter: This one is really an acting showcase. Melissa Leo has a strong shot at Supporting Actress and there's no way Christian Bale can lose Best Supporting Actor, but the movie as a whole is all over the place.
8. True Grit: A real contender. As I wrote in an earlier post, it's the least-awful Coen Brothers movie. It's a big story in a big setting with big characters, but perhaps the actors are getting more attention than the film itself.
9. The Social Network: It has up-to-the-minute relevance and tells a compelling story, but I feel that its screenplay is the real star, rather than the actors or directing. Also, from a visual standpoint, it's not much to look at.
10. The King's Speech: It's a period historical drama tempered with appropriate levity, it deals with epic events on an intimate scale, and it's filled with notable performances. And the costumes and sets are top-notch. The King's Speech fulfills every criteria for a Best Picture and, unless voters decide to get all modern and edgy this year, I think it will win Best Picture.
The Fighter & The Social Network
In The Fighter, Micky Ward (Mark Wahlberg) is an aspiring boxer with a close-knit family - his mother (nominee Melissa Leo) is a pushy, posessive manager and his half-brother Dicky (nominee Christian Bale) is his trainer. Dicky's crack addiction is an open secret and its effects ripple out to create trouble for Micky's family and career. All the negative influences in his life hold Micky back from his true potential, but when he cuts them loose and starts winning, his victories are hollow and, until a balance is found, he is kept from being a true champion.
In The Social Network, Harvard student Mark Zuckerberg (nominee Jesse Eisenberg) invents Facebook and brings his friends on board for the ride. As the project grows and expands, reaching the boundaries of his grasp, he befriends Sean Parker (Justin Timberlake), a controversial figure in internet history for his own groundbreaking invention, Napster. Sean takes Mark under his wing, instilling his cutthroat instincts and paranoia in the young programmer. Sean introduces Mark to a life of excess while insinuating himself into the company and insulating Mark from the friends who first helped him succeed. As Facebook grows stronger, the friendships fall apart, making all the victories hollow. What was intended as a way for people to be more connected on a personal level eventually became a wedge between friends and partners.
In The Social Network, Harvard student Mark Zuckerberg (nominee Jesse Eisenberg) invents Facebook and brings his friends on board for the ride. As the project grows and expands, reaching the boundaries of his grasp, he befriends Sean Parker (Justin Timberlake), a controversial figure in internet history for his own groundbreaking invention, Napster. Sean takes Mark under his wing, instilling his cutthroat instincts and paranoia in the young programmer. Sean introduces Mark to a life of excess while insinuating himself into the company and insulating Mark from the friends who first helped him succeed. As Facebook grows stronger, the friendships fall apart, making all the victories hollow. What was intended as a way for people to be more connected on a personal level eventually became a wedge between friends and partners.
Wednesday, February 23, 2011
Best Director
This year's Best Director nominees are Darren Arnofsky (Black Swan), David O. Russell (The Fighter), Tom Hooper (The King's Speech), David Fincher (The Social Network), and the Coen Brothers (True Grit).
The King's Speech might be the front runner for Best Picture, but its director is the youngest and most inexperienced of the five nominees. Though he did some interesting things with lenses, the other four nominees are better-known for their unique artistic visions and visual styles. I think that Russell, the Coens, and especially Arnofsky are considered oddball outsiders who make weird, outside-the-margins movies. Fincher, on the other hand, makes tasteful commercial hits, has never won before, has one previous nomination, has earned Hollywood credibility with films that are considered "modern classics," and his movie has a notable lack of psychotic ballerinas who grow feathers onstage.
The King's Speech might be the front runner for Best Picture, but its director is the youngest and most inexperienced of the five nominees. Though he did some interesting things with lenses, the other four nominees are better-known for their unique artistic visions and visual styles. I think that Russell, the Coens, and especially Arnofsky are considered oddball outsiders who make weird, outside-the-margins movies. Fincher, on the other hand, makes tasteful commercial hits, has never won before, has one previous nomination, has earned Hollywood credibility with films that are considered "modern classics," and his movie has a notable lack of psychotic ballerinas who grow feathers onstage.
Monday, February 21, 2011
Best Animated Feature
Frequent readers of this blog know that I don't pick short films or documentaries because a.) I don't see them and can't make judgements and b.) they tend to ruin my average.
I would, however, like to pick the Animated Feature category. The nominees are How To Train Your Dragon, The Illusionist, and Toy Story 3. With its Best Picture and Screenplay nominations, Toy Story 3 is the obvious choice.
This might be the clearest sure thing in this year's Oscars.
I would, however, like to pick the Animated Feature category. The nominees are How To Train Your Dragon, The Illusionist, and Toy Story 3. With its Best Picture and Screenplay nominations, Toy Story 3 is the obvious choice.
This might be the clearest sure thing in this year's Oscars.
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