Showing posts with label Oscars. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Oscars. Show all posts

Wednesday, March 9, 2016

Oscar Post Mortem 2016

Another Oscar night is in the books and I had an okay year - In the end it was Doug: 16, Oscar: 4. That's 80%, which isn't my best, but is still pretty good.  Here's how it turned out. My correct picks are bold:

Best Picture: Spotlight
Best Director: Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu
Best Actor: Leonardo DiCaprio
Best Actress: Brie Larson

Best Supporting Actor: Mark Rylance
Best Supporting Actress: Alicia Vikander
Best Original Screenplay: Spotlight
Best Adapted Screenplay: The Big Short
Best Film Editing: Mad Max: Fury Road
Best Cinematography: The Revenant
Best Score: The Hateful Eight

Best Song: "Writing On the Wall"
Best Art Direction: Mad Max: Fury Road
Best Costumes: Mad Max: Fury Road
Best Makeup: Mad Max: Fury Road

Best Visual Effects: Ex Machina
Best Sound: Mad Max: Fury Road
Best Sound Effects Editing: Mad Max: Fury Road
Best Animated Feature: Inside Out
Best Documentary Feature: Amy


With The Revenant getting the most nominations and Mad Max close behind, I figured one of the two would get Best Picture, but didn't account for the power of a strong ensemble cast getting a sizable push from the large actors' wing of the Academy. Supporting Actor, Best Song and Visual Effects were just old-fashioned surprises. 

Still, I'm pleased that Mad Max went home with the most awards of the night. The final score was Spotlight: 2, The Revenant: 3, Mad Max: 6, everyone else: 1. 

I'm also thrilled for the great Ennio Morricone, who won his first competitive Oscar after 50 years of writing film scores. And it was exciting to see him get a standing ovation.

I enjoyed the show overall and thought that Chris Rock did a fantastic job hosting. Sure, there were moments that dragged and the pacing was a bit off and they did nothing to rectify the snubs in last year's In Memoriam (Joan Rivers, Jan Hooks, Taylor Negron), but it was a good broadcast. I won't go into opinions about fashion because there are so many others here on the interwebs who do such a better job than I ever could.

Better luck next year! Now back to our regular programming about orchestra music...

  

Friday, February 26, 2016

Oscar Picks 2016

It's Oscar weekend, my favorite holiday of the year! And for once, my favorite movie of the year (Mad Max: Fury Road) is nominated in a bunch of categories, including Best Picture. Mad Max may, in fact, be my favorite movie of the past five years or so. Perhaps the past decade. It is amazing on all levels and if I had my way, it would win all the Oscars including Best Picture and a write-in Best Actress for Charlize Theron.

But there's a big gap between what I want to win and what I think will win. Here are my best guesses as to how the hardware will be distributed:

Best Picture: The Revenant
Best Director: Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu
Best Actor: Leonardo DiCaprio
Best Actress: Brie Larson
Best Supporting Actor: Sylvester Stallone
Best Supporting Actress: Alicia Vikander
Best Original Screenplay: Spotlight
Best Adapted Screenplay: The Big Short
Best Film Editing: Mad Max: Fury Road
Best Cinematography: The Revenant
Best Score: The Hateful Eight
Best Song: "Til It Happens to You" from The Hunting Ground
Best Art Direction: Mad Max: Fury Road
Best Costumes: Mad Max: Fury Road
Best Makeup: Mad Max: Fury Road
Best Visual Effects: Star Wars: The Force Awakens
Best Sound: Mad Max: Fury Road
Best Sound Effects Editing: Mad Max: Fury Road
Best Animated Feature: Inside Out
Best Documentary Feature: Amy

You'll notice that while I'm picking The Revenant for Best Picture, I'm picking Mad Max to take home the most Oscars. Mad Max was, objectively, the best looking, best sounding movie of the year. I'll be thrilled if it wins more, but I predict it will take at least six Oscars.

There was a lot of buzz for Spotlight and The Big Short in the Best Picture race, but I think The Revenant will take it in the end and the others will take the screenplay awards. Also, it looks like Inarritu is poised to become the third person in Oscar history to win back to back directing Oscars. The lead acting categories are locks and Vikander is a strong favorite for Supporting Actress, but Stallone is in a tough race. His win (for a role he's played in seven movies) could be seen as a defacto lifetime achievement award, but many may feel that that's a lifetime of bad action movies and cast their votes elsewhere.

The category I'm most anticipating is Best Score, where the legendary Ennio Morricone is poised to win his first competitive Oscar in a lifetime of creating memorable music. This will be the best-deserved Oscar of the night and I'll be very bitter if he doesn't receive a standing ovation. In other music news, I predict that Lady Gaga will be halfway to an EGOT by the end of the ceremony.

As usual, I don't pick the short films and this year I'm not comfortable taking a guess in the Foreign Language category. I will take a shot at Animated Feature (Pixar is usually a safe bet) and Documentary Feature.

The Oscars are on Sunday night on ABC with Chris Rock hosting - it should be a good time. I'll post the winners and my correct picks.

 

Thursday, February 26, 2015

Oscar Post-Mortem 2015

Another Oscar night is done and I did only okay this year - I honestly wasn't expecting to match 2014's 91.5% accuracy, but I was hoping to get somewhere in the 80% range. Rather, thanks to a surprisingly strong showing by Whiplash and a few risky picks, I got 71% this year. Not great, but not my worst year.  Here's how it broke down (correct picks are in red):

Best Picture: Birdman
Best Director: Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu, Birdman
Best Actor: Eddie Redmayne, The Theory of Everything
Best Actress: Julianne Moore, Still Alice
Best Supporting Actor: J. K. Simmons, Whiplash
Best Supporting Actress: Patricia Arquette, Boyhood
Best Original Screemplay: Birdman
Best Adapted Screenplay: The Imitation Game
Best Editing: Whiplash
Best Cinematography: Birdman
Best Score: The Grand Budapest Hotel
Best Song: "Glory" from Selma
Best Production Design: The Grand Budapest Hotel
Best Costumes: The Grand Budapest Hotel
Best Makeup: The Grand Budapest Hotel
Best Sound Editing: American Sniper
Best Sound Mixing: Whiplash
Best Visual Effects: Interstellar
Best Animated Feature: Big Hero 6
Best Foreign Language Film: Ida
Best Documentary Feature: Citizenfour

The final count was Birdman: 4, Grand Budapest: 4, Whiplash: 3, Everyone else: 1. I was hoping for more love for Boyhood, to recognize its epic production schedule and I underestimated the impact of Whiplash, which took two surprise awards.  I'm disappointed that proven veteran Michael Keaton was passed over but am thrilled for Julianne Moore, who finally won after four previous nominations.

Overall, I liked the show itself - NPH is a natural, likable host and did a great job. Lady Gaga has a great voice, but her Sound of Music tribute brought the show to a screeching halt and should have been cut. I was not happy about the In Memoriam montage leaving out Joan Rivers - the woman who basically invented red carpet coverage, personally boosted Oscar ratings for decades, made careers for up and coming designers and upped the standards of the event after years of questionable fashion. Anyone remember what the red carpet was like in the 80's? It was awful.  Besides that, she was a beloved writer and actress and for that alone should have been in the montage.

I enjoyed hearing all the political statements from the winners - the best Oscar moments are always the ones where the show goes off the rails and the producers lose control while someone goes rogue at the mic. After Patricia Arquette took a stand against wage inequality, it opened the floodgates for everyone to speak their minds and I applaud everyone who did.

It was an interesting broadcast with exciting results that left us with plenty to talk about - it's what we hope for every Oscar night. I'll try to do better next year and look forward to more exciting races!

Thursday, February 19, 2015

Oscar Picks 2015

It's time again for my Oscar predictions! This year we have a good mix of tight races and sure things. Here's how I see it going:

Best Picture: Birdman
Best Director: Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu, Birdman
Best Actor: Michael Keaton, Birdman
Best Actress: Julianne Moore, Still Alice
Best Supporting Actor: J. K. Simmons, Whiplash
Best Supporting Actress: Patricia Arquette, Boyhood
Best Original Screemplay: The Grand Budapest Hotel
Best Adapted Screenplay: The Imitation Game
Best Editing: Boyhood
Best Cinematography: Birdman
Best Score: The Theory of Everything
Best Song: "Glory" from Selma
Best Production Design: The Grand Budapest Hotel
Best Costumes: The Grand Budapest Hotel
Best Makeup: The Grand Budapest Hotel
Best Sound Editing: American Sniper
Best Sound Mixing: American Sniper
Best Visual Effects: Interstellar
Best Animated Feature: How to Train Your Dragon 2
Best Foreign Language Film: Ida
Best Documentary Feature: Citizenfour

This year's sure things are Supporting Actor, Supporting Actress and Best Song. I'm most nervous about my pick for Best Actor - the Oscar always goes to whomever won the Screen Actors Guild award and this year it went to Eddie Redmayne. But I think the Academy will break the trend and give it to Keaton for his decades of solid work and a fantastic technical and emotional turn in Birdman.

Best Picture and Director have also been up in the air between Boyhood and Birdman and many predict that the categories will split, but I think the Academy will side with Birdman's flashier production and conceit over Boyhood's more low-key, cerebral tone.  Besides, Hollywood people love stories about actors. That's largely why Shakespeare in Love beat Saving Private Ryan back in 1998.  Boyhood's major strengths are in its writing and editing.

If it goes as I predict, Birdman and The Grand Budapest Hotel will each win four Oscars, Boyhood will earn three, American Sniper will take both Sound categories and the rest of the hardware will be distributed evenly among seven other movies. As usual, I don't pick short films.

My fingers are crossed, but I can only hope to match last year's 91.5% success rate. Be sure to tune in on Sunday, February 22nd at 7pm Eastern Time! I'm expecting a great show from Neil Patrick Harris (who could turn out to be the next Billy Crystal) and, even though she wasn't an official part of the ceremony, I hope to see at least one tribute to Joan Rivers.

Enjoy the show and I'll post here with the results after the Oscars!

 

Wednesday, March 5, 2014

Oscar Post-Mortem 2014

I had my best Oscar Night ever, correctly picking 19 out of 21 categories! That's 90.5% - so much for all the hype over "the closest races in years." Here's a list of winners, with my correct picks in bold:

Best Picture: 12 Years a Slave
Best Director: Alfonso Cuaron, Gravity
Best Lead Actor: Matthew McConaughey, Dallas Buyer's Club
Best Lead Actress: Cate Blanchett, Blue Jasmine
Best Supporting Actor: Jared Leto, Dallas Buyer's Club
Best Supporting Actress: Lupita Nyong'o, 12 Years a Slave
Best Original Screenplay: Her
Best Adapted Screenplay: 12 Years a Slave
Best Cinematography: Gravity
Best Film Editing: Gravity
Best Sound Mixing: Gravity
Best Sound Effects Editing: Gravity
Best Score: Gravity
Best Song: "Let it Go," Frozen
Best Art Direction: The Great Gatsby
Best Makeup: Dallas Buyer's Club
Best Costumes: The Great Gatsby
Best Animated Feature: Frozen
Best Foreign Language Film: The Great Beauty, Italy
Best Documentary Feature: 20 Feet From Stardom

I thought the show was really fun, but, as always, I could do without the montages. Ellen was a great host and kept things light. She seems to be bulletproof in a thankless and often-criticized role and I hope she gets asked back again. 

I can't imagine that I'll do better at my picks next year, but there's a little room for improvement. For now, it's back to the music!

Monday, February 17, 2014

Oscar Predictions 2014

It's Oscar season again and it's time to make my picks. There are some really close races this year and a few others that are shoo-ins. Some leaders have emerged and other big races are still up in the air. It should be interesting. Here are my predictions:

Best Picture: 12 Years a Slave
Best Director: Alfonso Cuaron, Gravity
Best Lead Actor: Matthew McConaughey, Dallas Buyer's Club
Best Lead Actress: Cate Blanchett, Blue Jasmine
Best Supporting Actor: Jared Leto, Dallas Buyer's Club
Best Supporting Actress: Lupita N'yongo, 12 Years a Slave
Best Original Screenplay: Her
Best Adapted Screenplay: 12 Years a Slave
Best Cinematography: Gravity
Best Film Editing: Gravity
Best Sound Mixing: Gravity
Best Sound Effects Editing: Gravity
Best Score: Gravity
Best Song: "Let it Go," Frozen
Best Art Direction: The Great Gatsby
Best Makeup: Dallas Buyer's Club
Best Costumes: American Hustle
Best Animated Feature: Frozen
Best Foreign Language Film: The Great Beauty, Italy
Best Documentary Feature: The Act of Killing

As usual, I don't get to see the Short Film nominees, so I don't pick those.

The top three contenders this year are 12 Years a Slave, Gravity and American Hustle and, as you can see, I've picked Gravity to take 6 categories, but not Best Picture. It will likely sweep the technical categories and be recognized for its direction, but I suspect that 12 Years a Slave will edge it out for Best Picture. It's unusual for the Best Picture not to get the highest number of Oscars, Best Director, or the Film Editing Oscar, but that's how I see it going this year.

The big story is the emergence of Dallas Buyer's Club in the acting races. McConaughey and Leto have been picking up prizes all award season and are expected to finish big, overshadowing higher-profile performances from Chiwetel Ejiofor and Bradley Cooper.

I'll be watching on Sunday, March 2nd and hope you will too. The official pre-show begins at 7pm EST on CBS but E! will be broadcasting arrivals all day long. It should be an exciting show and I hope to match or beat last year's 76% success rate.  Enjoy the show!

 

Tuesday, February 26, 2013

Oscar Post-Mortem 2013

I did pretty well with my Oscar picks - I got 16 out of 21 (not counting the documentary or live-action short films), which is 76%. Here's the full list, with my correct picks bolded:

Best Picture: Argo
Best Director: Ang Lee
Best Actor Daniel Day-Lewis
Best Actress: Jennifer Lawrence
Best Supporting Actor: Christoph Waltz
Best Supporting Actress: Anne Hathaway
Best Original Screenplay: Django Unchained
Best Adapted Screenplay: Argo
Best Animated Feature: Brave
Best Foreign Language Film: Amour
Best Film Editing: Argo
Best Cinematography: Life of Pi
Best Production Design: Lincoln
Best Hair & Makeup: Lex Miz
Best Costumes: Anna Karenina
Best Song: Skyfall
Best Score: Life of Pi
Best Visual Effects: Life of Pi
Best Sound: Les Miz
Best Sound Effects Editing: Zero Dark Thirty & Skyfall (a tie!)
Best Animated Short: Paperman

Best Live-action Short: Curfew
Documentary Short: Innocente
Documentary Feature: Searching for Sugarman

I thought it was a great show, with only a few mis-steps. The producers of this year's broadcast were the guys behind 2002's Chicago and they took every opportunity to remind us of that fact, shoehorning clips and tributes throughout the show and reuiniting the cast to present awards. We get it. Chicago was a great movie. Ten years ago.

I thought Seth MacFarlane did really well and it was smart of him to acknowledge how thankless a job it is to host the Oscars. The monologue dragged a little, but his Sound Of Music gag was a particular favorite. Overall: thumbs up.

And I like that the ceremony was full of surprise moments like Daniel Day-Lewis's charming acceptance, Jennifer Lawrence being adorable, Quentin Tarantino's sweaty, rambling speech, and a tie for Best Sound Effects Editing.

I'm already looking forward to next year!
  

Friday, February 22, 2013

Oscars 2013

Hey! Oscar Night is Sunday and I haven't posted my picks yet!  Let's rectify that.

Best Picture: Argo
Best Director: Steven Speilberg
Best Actor Daniel Day-Lewis
Best Actress: Jennifer Lawrence
Best Supporting Actor: Tommy Lee Jones
Best Supporting Actress: Anne Hathaway
Best Original Screenplay: Django Unchained
Best Adapted Screenplay: Argo
Best Animated Feature: Wreck It Ralph
Best Foreign Language Film: Amour
Best Film Editing: Argo
Best Cinematography: Life of Pi
Best Production Design: Les Miz
Best Hair & Makeup: The Hobbit
Best Costumes: Anna Karenina
Best Song: Skyfall
Best Score: Life of Pi
Best Visual Effects: Life of Pi
Best Sound: Les Miz
Best Sound Effects Editing: Zero Dark Thirty

I took each category on its own merits and it looks like I've picked Argo, Lincoln, Les Miz, and Life of Pi to each take home three awards.  It's highly unusual for one film not to stand out.

As usual, I don't pick the shorts or documentary films because I normally don't get to see them ahead of time. But if I had to make an unofficial guess, I'd pick Paperman for Animated Short.

There it is! Under the wire! Enjoy the show on Sunday night!

Monday, February 27, 2012

Oscar Night Post-Mortem

Well, I had a pretty good Oscar night!  I correctly picked 15 out of 19, which is a 79% success rate.  Here's how it turned out (I've asterisked my correct picks):


Best Picture: The Artist*
Best Director: Michael Hazanavicius, The Artist*
Best Actor: Jean Dujardin, The Artist*
Best Actress:
Meryl Streep, The Iron Lady
Best Supporting Actor: Christopher Plummer, Beginners*
Best Supporting Actress: Octavia Spencer, The Help*
Best Original Screenplay: Midnight In Paris*
Best Adapted Screenplay: The Descendants*
Best Editing: The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo
Best Cinematography: Hugo
Best Score: The Artist*
Best Song:
"Man or Muppet" The Muppets*
Best Art Direction:
Hugo*
Best Costumes: The Artist*
Best Makeup: The Iron Lady*
Best Sound: Hugo*
Best Sound Editing:
Hugo*
Best Visual Effects: Hugo
Best Foreign Language Film: A Separation*


I didn't pick the Short Film, Documentary, or Animated Feature categories, but here's who won:


Documentary Feature: Undefeated
Documentary Short: Saving Face
Live Action Short: The Shore

Animated Short: The Fantastic Flying books of Mr. Morris Lessmore
Animated Feature: Rango


I probably could have picked Rango, but all the others would have ruined my average. I dodged a bullet there.


It was a good show - Billy Crystal never disappoints and it moved quickTributes and montages were kept to a minimum, there were no musical performances, and the thing Cirque Du Soleil was entertaining.  It was a lean, entertaining show. I had fun this year, even without writing a series of long blog posts. I can't wait for next year's Oscar season where, no doubt, I will be rooting for The Hobbit.
 

Tuesday, February 21, 2012

Oscars 2012

Oscar Night is my favorite holiday of the year and I usually celebrate online by writing in-depth reviews of the Best Picture nominees and explaining my picks in exacting detail here on the blog.  A lot of work and thought goes into the process ever year, but I've had this conversation too many times:

Friend: "So what do you think of the Oscars this year, Doug?"

Me: "I've been publishing all of my opinions and picks online for the last month. Haven't you been reading my blog?"

Friend: "No."

As much as I love writing them, the exhaustive string of blog posts just doesn't get read and all anyone really wants to hear about is who is going to win.  So here are my final picks for this year's Academy Awards:

Best Picture: The Artist
Best Director: Michael Hazanavicius, The Artist
Best Actor: Jean Dujardin, The Artist
Best Actress:
Viola Davis, The Help
Best Supporting Actor: Christopher Plummer, Beginners
Best Supporting Actress: Octavia Spencer, The Help
Best Original Screenplay: Midnight In Paris
Best Adapted Screenplay: The Descendants
Best Editing: The Artist
Best Cinematography: Tree of Life
Best Score: The Artist
Best Song:
"Man or Muppet" The Muppets
Best Art Direction:
Hugo
Best Costumes: The Artist
Best Makeup: The Iron Lady
Best Sound: Hugo
Best Sound Editing:
Hugo

Best Visual Effects: Rise of the Planet of the Apes
Best Foreign Language Film: A Separation


As always, I don't pick documentaries or short films, because I don't get to see most of them during the year and can't make an informed decision. This year, the same goes for Animated Feature, a category which features two films that have yet to get wide release and (for the first time since the category was established) no Pixar entry. I feel surest about the Actresses, least secure about the technical awards, and am pretty sure that The Artist will charm its way to the top spot and receive five other awards, but not Best Original Screenplay. The movie with the most nominations, Hugo, is also a marketing nightmare and will walk away with a respectable three statuettes.

Several prognosticators predict a win for George Clooney, but I think Jean Dujardin will be named Best Actor. The closest we have to a lock this year is Christopher Plummer for Supporting Actor.

I'm making some pretty daring picks this year in other categories. The visuals in Hugo blew me away, but I think Tree of Life's artistic camera work will impress voters more and will win the Cinematography prize. Harry Potter 7b was last year's highest-grossing movie, but I'm predicting that Planet of the Apes will best it for Visual Effects and The Iron Lady's prestige will vault it ahead of Potter for Best Makeup. I usually don't pick a Foreign Language film, but I'm taking a guarded chance this year with Iran's A Separation, which is the clear favorite.

We can all see how my predictions pan out on Sunday, February 26. Tune in to ABC at 7pm EST for the red carpet (or E! will have coverage all day if you want an early start).

 

Tuesday, March 8, 2011

Oscars 2010: Post-Mortem

Another Oscar Night has come and gone and the final score this year is Doug: 10, Oscar: 9.  I knew I couldn't beat last year's score and I'm just happy to get over 50%.  Here's how it turned out - I emboldened the categories that I picked correctly:


Best Picture: The King's Speech
Best Director: Tom Hooper, The King's Speech
Best Actor: Colin Firth, The King's Speech
Best Actress: Natalie Portman, Black Swan
Best Supporting Actor: Christian Bale, The Fighter
Best Supporting Actress: Melissa Leo, The Fighter
Best Original Screenplay: the King's Speech
Best Adapted Screenplay: The Social Network
Best Animated Feature: Toy Story 3
Best Cinematography: Inception
Best Editing: The Social Network
Best Score: The Social Network
Best Song: Toy Story 3
Best Art Direction: Alice In Wonderland
Best Costumes: Alice In Wonderland
Best Makeup: The Wolfman
Best Visual Effects: Inception
Best Sound: Inception
Best Sound Effects Editing: Inception

I thought the show was okay. Anne Hathaway was great and kept it fun and relatable, but James Franco was a little wooden.  I suspect that he does better when he's not reading his lines from a teleprompter.


Things that were good about the show:
1. Lots of surprises. Tom Hooper winning Best Director? Alice In Wonderland taking more than anyone expected? Randy Newman gets Best Song? These are the things that keep Oscar Night interesting.

2. The sets were nice.

3. With a few exceptions, they kept things moving. Kirk Douglas and Billy Crystal were allowed to indulge themselves way too much and each brought the show to a screeching halt, but otherwise, things were very smooth.

4. They finally took my advice and didn't mic the audience during the "In Memoriam" segment!  There's nothing more tacky than the applause-o-meter popularity contest we usually get.

5. People looked good. There were no "what was she wearing" moments, but then again, those often make things interesting too.


Things that were bad about the show:
1. If this was supposed to be the "young and hip" Oscars, you wouldn't know it.  Young audiences don't want to hear about movies that are over 10 years old. They don't care about Oscar history. They don't want to learn about the first Oscar broadcast in 1953. And they don't want to look at the presenters and ask "Who?"

2. The writing was awful. Even by award show standards.  The intros, forced banter, and witticisms were uniformly strained, stale, and flat.

3. No great acceptance speeches. Colin Firth was sweet, Tom Hooper had a nice story to tell, and Randy Newman was kind of funny, but no one had a standout speech.

4. My advice is that if you're going to have two co-hosts, they should be as different as possible.  I'd like to see Steve Martin's jaded, sarcastic persona paired with Anne Hathaway's  earnest "Golly, I can't believe I'm here" energy.  That would make an interesting dynamic.

So: not my best year, but definitely not my worst.  I enjoyed writing these posts and I'll go back to writing about music now, but come back next February and we'll do it all again for the 84th Academy Awards.  Thanks for reading!

Saturday, February 26, 2011

Oscar Picks: The Final List

Oscar Night is tomorrow!  If you're like me, you'll clear your schedule and start watching the red carpet coverage at about noon. The show starts at 8:00pm on ABC.  I'm expecting a young, modern show and it's my hope that enigmatic Documentary Feature nominee Banksy contributes to the sets.

Below, you'll find my final picks for the 2010 Academy Awards. I've made a few changes from my initial picks. Melissa Leo has been campaigning hard for Best Supporting Actress and has racked up several awards, but after seeing the movies, I'm sticking to my initial pick of Hailee Steinfeld in True Grit.  She really had a lead role - bigger than Jeff Bridges - and I think she'll walk away with the Oscar.

I previously picked Alice In Wonderland for Costumes and Art Direction, but, looking over my predictions, I only picked The King's Speech for two, including Best Picture, and that makes me nervous.  No Best Picture since Rebecca has earned so few. I suspect that the artistic merits of The King's Speech will be its best shot at a higher total, so I'm changing my picks. 

Otherwise, things are pretty much the same. I'm predicting four wins for Inception and The King's Speech and two each for True Grit and The Social Network. Seven other movies will each take one.  Sorry, Winter's Bone - you were one of my favorite movies of the year, but you're destined to be the only Best Picture nominee to go home empty-handed.  I'm confident in my picks for the acting awards - especially Supporting Actor - but those artistic and technical categories always have a way of biting me. I'm most worried about Cinematography, Costumes, and Art Direction.

Best Picture: The King's Speech
Best Director: David Fincher, The Social Network
Best Actor: Colin Firth, The King's Speech
Best Actress: Natalie Portman, Black Swan
Best Supporting Actor: Christian Bale, The Fighter
Best Supporting Actress: Hailee Steinfeld, True Grit
Best Original Screenplay: The Kids Are All Right
Best Adapted Screenplay: The Social Network
Best Animated Feature: Toy Story 3
Best Cinematography: True Grit
Best Editing: 127 Hours
Best Score: Inception
Best Song: "Coming Home" Country Strong
Best Art Direction: The King's Speech
Best Costumes: The King's Speech
Best Makeup: The Wolfman
Best Visual Effects: Inception
Best Sound: Inception
Best Sound Effects Editing: Inception

Friday, February 25, 2011

Best Picture

I rather like the ten-nominee system of the past few years.  It's allowed some interesting films to get recognition when they normally wouldn't.  So here are the ten Best Picture nominees and my assessment of their Best Picture changes:

1. Toy Story 3: A solid film, but animation is still struggling to gain equal acceptance with live-action films.  Its a shoo-in for Best Animated Feature, which will be the extent of its wins.

2. Winter's Bone: One of my favorites of the year.  Fantastic acting, a real, gritty sense of danger, and an excellent surprise.  It doesn't stand a chance.

3. 127 Hours: In short, it's too gruesome to win Best Picture.

4. Inception: Popular, yes, but it's dense as granite and it's sci-fi, which traditionally cleans up in the technical categories and gets overshadowed in the Best Picture race.

5. Black Swan: Too crazy to win.

6. The Kids Are All Right: It's a talky, character-driven family drama with a bitter touch of comedy.  All bode well, but it's missing the epic quality of some of its contenders. Just like Little Miss Sunshine and Juno, it's more attractive as a Screenplay winner than as a Best Picture.

7. The Fighter: This one is really an acting showcase. Melissa Leo has a strong shot at Supporting Actress and there's no way Christian Bale can lose Best Supporting Actor, but the movie as a whole is all over the place.

8. True Grit: A real contender.  As I wrote in an earlier post, it's the least-awful Coen Brothers movie.  It's a big story in a big setting with big characters, but perhaps the actors are getting more attention than the film itself.

9.  The Social Network: It has up-to-the-minute relevance and tells a compelling story, but I feel that its screenplay is the real star, rather than the actors or directing.  Also, from a visual standpoint, it's not much to look at.

10. The King's Speech: It's a period historical drama tempered with appropriate levity, it deals with epic events on an intimate scale, and it's filled with notable performances. And the costumes and sets are top-notch.  The King's Speech fulfills every criteria for a Best Picture and, unless voters decide to get all modern and edgy this year, I think it will win Best Picture.

The Fighter & The Social Network

In The Fighter, Micky Ward (Mark Wahlberg) is an aspiring boxer with a close-knit family - his mother (nominee Melissa Leo) is a pushy, posessive manager and his half-brother Dicky (nominee Christian Bale) is his trainer.  Dicky's crack addiction is an open secret and its effects ripple out to create trouble for Micky's family and career.  All the negative influences in his life hold Micky back from his true potential, but when he cuts them loose and starts winning, his victories are hollow and, until a balance is found, he is kept from being a true champion.

In The Social Network, Harvard student Mark Zuckerberg (nominee Jesse Eisenberg) invents Facebook and brings his friends on board for the ride.  As the project grows and expands, reaching the boundaries of his grasp, he befriends Sean Parker (Justin Timberlake), a controversial figure in internet history for his own groundbreaking invention, Napster. Sean takes Mark under his wing, instilling his cutthroat instincts and paranoia in the young programmer. Sean introduces Mark to a life of excess while insinuating himself into the company and insulating Mark from the friends who first helped him succeed.  As Facebook grows stronger, the friendships fall apart, making all the victories hollow.  What was intended as a way for people to be more connected on a personal level eventually became a wedge between friends and partners.

Wednesday, February 23, 2011

Best Director

This year's Best Director nominees are Darren Arnofsky (Black Swan), David O. Russell (The Fighter), Tom Hooper (The King's Speech), David Fincher (The Social Network), and the Coen Brothers (True Grit).

The King's Speech might be the front runner for Best Picture, but its director is the youngest and most inexperienced of the five nominees. Though he did some interesting things with lenses, the other four nominees are better-known for their unique artistic visions and visual styles. I think that Russell, the Coens, and especially Arnofsky are considered oddball outsiders who make weird, outside-the-margins movies. Fincher, on the other hand, makes tasteful commercial hits, has never won before, has one previous nomination, has earned Hollywood credibility with films that are considered "modern classics," and his movie has a notable lack of psychotic ballerinas who grow feathers onstage.

Monday, February 21, 2011

Best Animated Feature

Frequent readers of this blog know that I don't pick short films or documentaries because a.) I don't see them and can't make judgements and b.) they tend to ruin my average. 

I would, however, like to pick the Animated Feature category.  The nominees are How To Train Your Dragon, The Illusionist, and Toy Story 3.  With its Best Picture and Screenplay nominations, Toy Story 3 is the obvious choice.

This might be the clearest sure thing in this year's Oscars.

Friday, February 18, 2011

True Grit and Winter's Bone

You may recall that I swore off Coen Brothers movies last year but, unfortunately, True Grit is a juggernaut at this year's Oscars, so I felt compelled to see it.  But I still refused pay for it myself.  That said, I found it to be the least-annoying movie they've ever made.  Probably because their over-written, cloyingly stylized dialogue doesn't sound nearly as grating coming from 19th-Century frontierspeople.  There are Coen-esque annoyances throughout, though.  Mainly the courtroom scene and the dentist. 

End of disclaimer. moving on:

True Grit follows 13-year-old Mattie Ross (nominee Hailee Steinfeld) as she seeks revenge for her father's murder. Mattie hires gruff U.S. Marshall "Rooster" Cogburn (nominee Jeff Bridges) to track and kill Tom Cheney (Josh Brolin).  Constantly underestimated and condescended, Mattie pushes hard to get what she wants, negotiating and bargaining her way through the towns and wilderness with a focused ferocity.  As a child and a female in the Old West, she gets no respect but, in her father's absence, Mattie is now the man of her household and she takes charge of what needs to be done.

In Winter's Bone, Ree (nominee Jennifer Lawrence) is a modern teen in rural Arkansas. Her criminal father has left her to care for an invalid mother and two much younger siblings and, it turns out, jumped bail. Unless Ree can find him and turn him in, she and her family will loose their home.  So Ree searches and asks around, encountering a series of dangerous people who don't want her father found.  But Ree doesn't care if he's alive or dead, what he did, or who is responsible for his disappearance.  She may be looked down on for being a child and a girl, but her stoic, single-minded focus keeps her going until she finds the truth and can save her home. She is the man of the house and, despite warnings and beatings, puts herself in harm's way to provide for her family.

Wednesday, February 16, 2011

Screenplay Awards

The Best Adapted Screenplay nominees are 127 Hours, The Social Network, Toy Story 3, True Grit, and Winter's Bone

Can someone explain to me how Toy Story 3 is an adapted screenplay?

But really, the standout is Aaron Sorkin's script for The Social Network.  It's really the best part of that film and it's the aspect that people are talking about most. The plot zips along like a thriller, it has up-to-the-minute relevance, and the dialogue pops like fireworks.  True Grit might upset here, but the logical choice is the Facebook movie.

The Best Original Screenplay nominees are Another Year, The Fighter, Inception, The Kids Are All Right, and The King's Speech

Inception might be the most discussed and hashed-over screenplay of the year, but Oscar voters tend to favor compelling, small-scale, character-driven films, so I'm going with The Kids Are All Right. It probably won't win in any other category, but it's best shot is for its screenplay.

Monday, February 14, 2011

Best Actor

This year's Best Actor nominees are Javier Bardem (Biutiful), Jeff Bridges (True Grit), Jesse Eisenberg (The Social Network), Colin Firth (The King's Speech), and James Franco (127 Hours).

I think it's pretty cool that for the first time ever, an Oscar host is also up for an award - and one as big as Lead Actor.  It's also cool that Jeff Bridges could be the third person in Oscar history to win back-to-back Best Actor trophies. 

In the end, though, I think Colin Firth will take home the prize. His character deals with a debilitating physical impediment in an inspirational period film - pure Oscar bait.  Bardem's film is gaining momentum but it's extra-super depressing. Firth's real competition comes from Bridges, who eliminates all vestiges of "The Dude" in his gruff performance as Rooster Cogburn.

Friday, February 11, 2011

127 Hours and The King's Speech

In 127 Hours, Aaron Ralston (James Franco) is the cocksure mountain climber who gets pinned in a narrow Utah canyon and famously ends up cutting off his own arm to free himself.  Though he realizes soon after the accident that he'll probably lose the arm, Aaron takes five agonizing days to actually take the initiative and do what has to be done.  In that time, he ponders his life and the mistakes that led him to that point. He meditates, in his dehydrated state, on his attitudes, his relationships, and his life. The movie makes it clear that without having the time to reflect in the face of death, he would never had achieved the epiphany of self-awareness that led him to free himself.  "That rock was waiting for me my whole life," he says, "The minute I was born, every breath that I've taken, every action has been leading me to this crack on the outer surface."

In the King's Speech, the future King George VI (Colin Firth) fights a debilitating stutter and seeks help from Lionel Logue (Geoffrey Rush), an Australian speech therapist with unusual methods.  While Lionel can help "Bertie" with a few tricks and exercises, it's not until the future king opens up about his anxieties and troubled past that lasting progress can begin. After Bertie reluctantly takes on the role of king - a responsibility he never thought he'd have and one that he has dreaded his whole life - England is thrust into a war with Germany and the country finds itself in need of a leader with a strong voice.  Though it is by no means easy, it is clear that he never would have been able to do it at all without help from Lionel and the self awareness that came from his epiphany.

In each film, our main character must face the past that led him to a defining moment. Though their stakes and situations are very different, they must both muster their courage to endure the unthinkable.