It's Oscar weekend, my favorite holiday of the year! And for once, my favorite movie of the year (Mad Max: Fury Road) is nominated in a bunch of categories, including Best Picture. Mad Max may, in fact, be my favorite movie of the past five years or so. Perhaps the past decade. It is amazing on all levels and if I had my way, it would win all the Oscars including Best Picture and a write-in Best Actress for Charlize Theron.
But there's a big gap between what I want to win and what I think will win. Here are my best guesses as to how the hardware will be distributed:
Best Picture: The Revenant
Best Director: Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu
Best Actor: Leonardo DiCaprio
Best Actress: Brie Larson
Best Supporting Actor: Sylvester Stallone
Best Supporting Actress: Alicia Vikander
Best Original Screenplay: Spotlight
Best Adapted Screenplay: The Big Short
Best Film Editing: Mad Max: Fury Road
Best Cinematography: The Revenant
Best Score: The Hateful Eight
Best Song: "Til It Happens to You" from The Hunting Ground
Best Art Direction: Mad Max: Fury Road
Best Costumes: Mad Max: Fury Road
Best Makeup: Mad Max: Fury Road
Best Visual Effects: Star Wars: The Force Awakens
Best Sound: Mad Max: Fury Road
Best Sound Effects Editing: Mad Max: Fury Road
Best Animated Feature: Inside Out
Best Documentary Feature: Amy
You'll notice that while I'm picking The Revenant for Best Picture, I'm picking Mad Max to take home the most Oscars. Mad Max was, objectively, the best looking, best sounding movie of the year. I'll be thrilled if it wins more, but I predict it will take at least six Oscars.
There was a lot of buzz for Spotlight and The Big Short in the Best Picture race, but I think The Revenant will take it in the end and the others will take the screenplay awards. Also, it looks like Inarritu is poised to become the third person in Oscar history to win back to back directing Oscars. The lead acting categories are locks and Vikander is a strong favorite for Supporting Actress, but Stallone is in a tough race. His win (for a role he's played in seven movies) could be seen as a defacto lifetime achievement award, but many may feel that that's a lifetime of bad action movies and cast their votes elsewhere.
The category I'm most anticipating is Best Score, where the legendary Ennio Morricone is poised to win his first competitive Oscar in a lifetime of creating memorable music. This will be the best-deserved Oscar of the night and I'll be very bitter if he doesn't receive a standing ovation. In other music news, I predict that Lady Gaga will be halfway to an EGOT by the end of the ceremony.
As usual, I don't pick the short films and this year I'm not comfortable taking a guess in the Foreign Language category. I will take a shot at Animated Feature (Pixar is usually a safe bet) and Documentary Feature.
The Oscars are on Sunday night on ABC with Chris Rock hosting - it should be a good time. I'll post the winners and my correct picks.
Showing posts with label Best Actress. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Best Actress. Show all posts
Friday, February 26, 2016
Monday, February 7, 2011
Best Actress
Here's an exciting race! The nominees are Annette Benning (The Kids Are All Right), Nicole Kidman (Rabbit Hole), Jennifer Lawrence (Winter's Bone), Natalie Portman (Black Swan), and Michele Williams (Blue Valentine).
First, let me say that if it were up to me, Jennifer Lawrence would get the award. She gave what was easily the best female leading performance of the year. Maybe the best lead performance period. But sadly, it's not up to me.
No, this race is really between Benning and Portman. Voters have a choice: they can finally give the Oscar to a Hollywood legend or they can give it to the young actress who suffered for her role. Both won Golden Globes and are clearly the front-runners, but it comes down to one factor – Portman wants it more.
On talk shows and interviews she never fails to mention her rigorous ballet training and diet for the role. During the nomination voting she announced that she's pregnant and has been showing up to events in baby bump-accenting gowns. She also announced that she is engaged to her Black Swan Choreographer. And if that wasn't enough to keep people talking about her, she took a page from Julia Robert's winning playbook and released a light comedy movie to run during Oscar season.
Remember in 2000 when Julia Roberts was up for Erin Brockovich, a serious dramatic role? During Oscar season she released The Mexican, a light relationship comedy, to remind voters that she has range as an actress. This also had the benefit of letting her campaign for the Oscar without looking like she was campaigning – she would go on talk shows and do interviews ostensibly to promote the new movie, but the conversation would always turn to her nomination. Very clever. But the plan can backfire – let's not forget Eddie Murphy. He got a nomination for Dreamgirls and then released Norbit, effectively ruining his shot at the Oscar.
So, while Annette Benning floats her way graciously through another awards season, Natalie Portman is focused with steely, laser-like precision on that Oscar. Let's just hope she doesn't fall victim to the "Best Actress curse."
First, let me say that if it were up to me, Jennifer Lawrence would get the award. She gave what was easily the best female leading performance of the year. Maybe the best lead performance period. But sadly, it's not up to me.
No, this race is really between Benning and Portman. Voters have a choice: they can finally give the Oscar to a Hollywood legend or they can give it to the young actress who suffered for her role. Both won Golden Globes and are clearly the front-runners, but it comes down to one factor – Portman wants it more.
On talk shows and interviews she never fails to mention her rigorous ballet training and diet for the role. During the nomination voting she announced that she's pregnant and has been showing up to events in baby bump-accenting gowns. She also announced that she is engaged to her Black Swan Choreographer. And if that wasn't enough to keep people talking about her, she took a page from Julia Robert's winning playbook and released a light comedy movie to run during Oscar season.
Remember in 2000 when Julia Roberts was up for Erin Brockovich, a serious dramatic role? During Oscar season she released The Mexican, a light relationship comedy, to remind voters that she has range as an actress. This also had the benefit of letting her campaign for the Oscar without looking like she was campaigning – she would go on talk shows and do interviews ostensibly to promote the new movie, but the conversation would always turn to her nomination. Very clever. But the plan can backfire – let's not forget Eddie Murphy. He got a nomination for Dreamgirls and then released Norbit, effectively ruining his shot at the Oscar.
So, while Annette Benning floats her way graciously through another awards season, Natalie Portman is focused with steely, laser-like precision on that Oscar. Let's just hope she doesn't fall victim to the "Best Actress curse."
Tuesday, February 16, 2010
Best Actress
This year's nominees for Best Actress are Sandra Bullock (The Blind Side), Helen Mirren (The Last Station), Carey Muligan (An Education), Gabourney Sidibe (Precious), and Meryl Streep (Julie & Julia).
Muligan and Sidibe are some notable newcomers and both are surprise nominees, but they're up against some pretty heavy competition. Helen Mirren won here just two years ago and, though her performance obviously merits a nomination, I don't think it has enough heat to warrant another win so soon after The Queen. Meryl Streep is beloved in Hollywood and is famous for having the most nominations for acting ever, but her last win was in 1983. Voters may feel that after 27 years, she's due for another win. On the other hand, there's Sandra Bullock. She's a first-time nominee, but she's been a hard worker for nearly twenty years without any substantial recognition. Bullock had a great year with three movies (two of them were her most successful ever) and I think that the Academy will jump at the opportunity to give her the award. Meryl Streep will always have next year, but this is a case where the timing is just right for Bullock.
Muligan and Sidibe are some notable newcomers and both are surprise nominees, but they're up against some pretty heavy competition. Helen Mirren won here just two years ago and, though her performance obviously merits a nomination, I don't think it has enough heat to warrant another win so soon after The Queen. Meryl Streep is beloved in Hollywood and is famous for having the most nominations for acting ever, but her last win was in 1983. Voters may feel that after 27 years, she's due for another win. On the other hand, there's Sandra Bullock. She's a first-time nominee, but she's been a hard worker for nearly twenty years without any substantial recognition. Bullock had a great year with three movies (two of them were her most successful ever) and I think that the Academy will jump at the opportunity to give her the award. Meryl Streep will always have next year, but this is a case where the timing is just right for Bullock.
Friday, February 6, 2009
Best Actress
The Best Actress race is a toughie this year.
Melissa Leo (Frozen River) stars in a tiny independent that not many people saw, so without a huge marketing push, her chances are weak. Perennial nominee Meryl Streep's dour nun in Doubt might be too severe a character and, though she gets a few good crying scenes, Angelina Jolie's movie, Changeling, fizzled at the box office.
The real revelation this year was Anne Hathaway in Rachel Getting Married. As an alcoholic who ruins her sister's wedding, Hathaway gets to do all the things that voters love to see - broad range and self-destructive behavior. On top of that, this is the opposite of all the frothy romances she's know for. On the other hand, her recent follow-up, Bride Wars, didn't set the world aflame and may hurt her chances. Remember when Norbit was released right after Eddie Murphy was nominated for Dreamgirls? Many believe that it left a sour taste in voters' mouths and the same thing might happen to Anne Hathaway.
Any other year, I'd pick Hathaway, but Kate Winslet's nomination complicates things. Her role in The Reader has won her awards for Supporting Actress, but she is, in fact, the lead in the movie and is up for Lead Actress at the Oscars. Unlike Hathaway, her nomination is bolstered by a great un-nominated performance in Revolutionary Road. I think that the oft-nominated Winslet has gained a lot of support and will end up on stage this year. It's not a great movie and certainly not her best performance, but chances are, she'll win.
Melissa Leo (Frozen River) stars in a tiny independent that not many people saw, so without a huge marketing push, her chances are weak. Perennial nominee Meryl Streep's dour nun in Doubt might be too severe a character and, though she gets a few good crying scenes, Angelina Jolie's movie, Changeling, fizzled at the box office.
The real revelation this year was Anne Hathaway in Rachel Getting Married. As an alcoholic who ruins her sister's wedding, Hathaway gets to do all the things that voters love to see - broad range and self-destructive behavior. On top of that, this is the opposite of all the frothy romances she's know for. On the other hand, her recent follow-up, Bride Wars, didn't set the world aflame and may hurt her chances. Remember when Norbit was released right after Eddie Murphy was nominated for Dreamgirls? Many believe that it left a sour taste in voters' mouths and the same thing might happen to Anne Hathaway.
Any other year, I'd pick Hathaway, but Kate Winslet's nomination complicates things. Her role in The Reader has won her awards for Supporting Actress, but she is, in fact, the lead in the movie and is up for Lead Actress at the Oscars. Unlike Hathaway, her nomination is bolstered by a great un-nominated performance in Revolutionary Road. I think that the oft-nominated Winslet has gained a lot of support and will end up on stage this year. It's not a great movie and certainly not her best performance, but chances are, she'll win.
Tuesday, February 5, 2008
Best Actress
In this year's Best Actress race, two performances really stand out among the five. I love that Ellen Page was nominated for Juno - her performance cannot be overrated - but she is the youngest nominee and has the least-showy role of the five. Likewise, Laura Linney is outmatched for her role in The Savages by more high-profile films. Perennial Oscar record-breaker Cate Blanchett is now the first woman to be nominated for the same role in two different movies (1998's Elizabeth and this year's Elizabeth: The Golden Age) but, like its predescessor, this sequel is more a showcase for its costumes and sets than its performances. That leaves two ladies standing: Marion Cotillard, who absolutely inhabits the role of Edith Piaf from the ages of 20 through 60 in La Vie En Rose, and Julie Christie as an alzheimer's patient in Away From Her. On one hand, Cotillard physically transformed herself and threw herself into a turbulent role, but on the other hand, Julie Christie has won nearly every acting award so far this year. I'd love to see Cotillard's name called, but I think voters will feel that the movie is too over-the-top and melodramatic and will go with Christie's more understated, brave performance.
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