Oscar Post-Mortem 2015

Another Oscar night is done and I did only okay this year - I honestly wasn't expecting to match 2014's 91.5% accuracy, but I was hoping to get somewhere in the 80% range. Rather, thanks to a surprisingly strong showing by Whiplash and a few risky picks, I got 71% this year. Not great, but not my worst year.  Here's how it broke down (correct picks are in red):

Best Picture: Birdman
Best Director: Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu, Birdman
Best Actor: Eddie Redmayne, The Theory of Everything
Best Actress: Julianne Moore, Still Alice
Best Supporting Actor: J. K. Simmons, Whiplash
Best Supporting Actress: Patricia Arquette, Boyhood
Best Original Screemplay: Birdman
Best Adapted Screenplay: The Imitation Game
Best Editing: Whiplash
Best Cinematography: Birdman
Best Score: The Grand Budapest Hotel
Best Song: "Glory" from Selma
Best Production Design: The Grand Budapest Hotel
Best Costumes: The Grand Budapest Hotel
Best Makeup: The Grand Budapest Hotel
Best Sound Editing: American Sniper
Best Sound Mixing: Whiplash
Best Visual Effects: Interstellar
Best Animated Feature: Big Hero 6
Best Foreign Language Film: Ida
Best Documentary Feature: Citizenfour

The final count was Birdman: 4, Grand Budapest: 4, Whiplash: 3, Everyone else: 1. I was hoping for more love for Boyhood, to recognize its epic production schedule and I underestimated the impact of Whiplash, which took two surprise awards.  I'm disappointed that proven veteran Michael Keaton was passed over but am thrilled for Julianne Moore, who finally won after four previous nominations.

Overall, I liked the show itself - NPH is a natural, likable host and did a great job. Lady Gaga has a great voice, but her Sound of Music tribute brought the show to a screeching halt and should have been cut. I was not happy about the In Memoriam montage leaving out Joan Rivers - the woman who basically invented red carpet coverage, personally boosted Oscar ratings for decades, made careers for up and coming designers and upped the standards of the event after years of questionable fashion. Anyone remember what the red carpet was like in the 80's? It was awful.  Besides that, she was a beloved writer and actress and for that alone should have been in the montage.

I enjoyed hearing all the political statements from the winners - the best Oscar moments are always the ones where the show goes off the rails and the producers lose control while someone goes rogue at the mic. After Patricia Arquette took a stand against wage inequality, it opened the floodgates for everyone to speak their minds and I applaud everyone who did.

It was an interesting broadcast with exciting results that left us with plenty to talk about - it's what we hope for every Oscar night. I'll try to do better next year and look forward to more exciting races!

Oscar Picks 2015

It's time again for my Oscar predictions! This year we have a good mix of tight races and sure things. Here's how I see it going:

Best Picture: Birdman
Best Director: Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu, Birdman
Best Actor: Michael Keaton, Birdman
Best Actress: Julianne Moore, Still Alice
Best Supporting Actor: J. K. Simmons, Whiplash
Best Supporting Actress: Patricia Arquette, Boyhood
Best Original Screemplay: The Grand Budapest Hotel
Best Adapted Screenplay: The Imitation Game
Best Editing: Boyhood
Best Cinematography: Birdman
Best Score: The Theory of Everything
Best Song: "Glory" from Selma
Best Production Design: The Grand Budapest Hotel
Best Costumes: The Grand Budapest Hotel
Best Makeup: The Grand Budapest Hotel
Best Sound Editing: American Sniper
Best Sound Mixing: American Sniper
Best Visual Effects: Interstellar
Best Animated Feature: How to Train Your Dragon 2
Best Foreign Language Film: Ida
Best Documentary Feature: Citizenfour

This year's sure things are Supporting Actor, Supporting Actress and Best Song. I'm most nervous about my pick for Best Actor - the Oscar always goes to whomever won the Screen Actors Guild award and this year it went to Eddie Redmayne. But I think the Academy will break the trend and give it to Keaton for his decades of solid work and a fantastic technical and emotional turn in Birdman.

Best Picture and Director have also been up in the air between Boyhood and Birdman and many predict that the categories will split, but I think the Academy will side with Birdman's flashier production and conceit over Boyhood's more low-key, cerebral tone.  Besides, Hollywood people love stories about actors. That's largely why Shakespeare in Love beat Saving Private Ryan back in 1998.  Boyhood's major strengths are in its writing and editing.

If it goes as I predict, Birdman and The Grand Budapest Hotel will each win four Oscars, Boyhood will earn three, American Sniper will take both Sound categories and the rest of the hardware will be distributed evenly among seven other movies. As usual, I don't pick short films.

My fingers are crossed, but I can only hope to match last year's 91.5% success rate. Be sure to tune in on Sunday, February 22nd at 7pm Eastern Time! I'm expecting a great show from Neil Patrick Harris (who could turn out to be the next Billy Crystal) and, even though she wasn't an official part of the ceremony, I hope to see at least one tribute to Joan Rivers.

Enjoy the show and I'll post here with the results after the Oscars!

 

Oscar Post-Mortem 2014

I had my best Oscar Night ever, correctly picking 19 out of 21 categories! That's 90.5% - so much for all the hype over "the closest races in years." Here's a list of winners, with my correct picks in bold:

Best Picture: 12 Years a Slave
Best Director: Alfonso Cuaron, Gravity
Best Lead Actor: Matthew McConaughey, Dallas Buyer's Club
Best Lead Actress: Cate Blanchett, Blue Jasmine
Best Supporting Actor: Jared Leto, Dallas Buyer's Club
Best Supporting Actress: Lupita Nyong'o, 12 Years a Slave
Best Original Screenplay: Her
Best Adapted Screenplay: 12 Years a Slave
Best Cinematography: Gravity
Best Film Editing: Gravity
Best Sound Mixing: Gravity
Best Sound Effects Editing: Gravity
Best Score: Gravity
Best Song: "Let it Go," Frozen
Best Art Direction: The Great Gatsby
Best Makeup: Dallas Buyer's Club
Best Costumes: The Great Gatsby
Best Animated Feature: Frozen
Best Foreign Language Film: The Great Beauty, Italy
Best Documentary Feature: 20 Feet From Stardom

I thought the show was really fun, but, as always, I could do without the montages. Ellen was a great host and kept things light. She seems to be bulletproof in a thankless and often-criticized role and I hope she gets asked back again. 

I can't imagine that I'll do better at my picks next year, but there's a little room for improvement. For now, it's back to the music!

Oscar Predictions 2014

It's Oscar season again and it's time to make my picks. There are some really close races this year and a few others that are shoo-ins. Some leaders have emerged and other big races are still up in the air. It should be interesting. Here are my predictions:

Best Picture: 12 Years a Slave
Best Director: Alfonso Cuaron, Gravity
Best Lead Actor: Matthew McConaughey, Dallas Buyer's Club
Best Lead Actress: Cate Blanchett, Blue Jasmine
Best Supporting Actor: Jared Leto, Dallas Buyer's Club
Best Supporting Actress: Lupita N'yongo, 12 Years a Slave
Best Original Screenplay: Her
Best Adapted Screenplay: 12 Years a Slave
Best Cinematography: Gravity
Best Film Editing: Gravity
Best Sound Mixing: Gravity
Best Sound Effects Editing: Gravity
Best Score: Gravity
Best Song: "Let it Go," Frozen
Best Art Direction: The Great Gatsby
Best Makeup: Dallas Buyer's Club
Best Costumes: American Hustle
Best Animated Feature: Frozen
Best Foreign Language Film: The Great Beauty, Italy
Best Documentary Feature: The Act of Killing

As usual, I don't get to see the Short Film nominees, so I don't pick those.

The top three contenders this year are 12 Years a Slave, Gravity and American Hustle and, as you can see, I've picked Gravity to take 6 categories, but not Best Picture. It will likely sweep the technical categories and be recognized for its direction, but I suspect that 12 Years a Slave will edge it out for Best Picture. It's unusual for the Best Picture not to get the highest number of Oscars, Best Director, or the Film Editing Oscar, but that's how I see it going this year.

The big story is the emergence of Dallas Buyer's Club in the acting races. McConaughey and Leto have been picking up prizes all award season and are expected to finish big, overshadowing higher-profile performances from Chiwetel Ejiofor and Bradley Cooper.

I'll be watching on Sunday, March 2nd and hope you will too. The official pre-show begins at 7pm EST on CBS but E! will be broadcasting arrivals all day long. It should be an exciting show and I hope to match or beat last year's 76% success rate.  Enjoy the show!

 

Oscar Post-Mortem 2013

I did pretty well with my Oscar picks - I got 16 out of 21 (not counting the documentary or live-action short films), which is 76%. Here's the full list, with my correct picks bolded:

Best Picture: Argo
Best Director: Ang Lee
Best Actor Daniel Day-Lewis
Best Actress: Jennifer Lawrence
Best Supporting Actor: Christoph Waltz
Best Supporting Actress: Anne Hathaway
Best Original Screenplay: Django Unchained
Best Adapted Screenplay: Argo
Best Animated Feature: Brave
Best Foreign Language Film: Amour
Best Film Editing: Argo
Best Cinematography: Life of Pi
Best Production Design: Lincoln
Best Hair & Makeup: Lex Miz
Best Costumes: Anna Karenina
Best Song: Skyfall
Best Score: Life of Pi
Best Visual Effects: Life of Pi
Best Sound: Les Miz
Best Sound Effects Editing: Zero Dark Thirty & Skyfall (a tie!)
Best Animated Short: Paperman

Best Live-action Short: Curfew
Documentary Short: Innocente
Documentary Feature: Searching for Sugarman

I thought it was a great show, with only a few mis-steps. The producers of this year's broadcast were the guys behind 2002's Chicago and they took every opportunity to remind us of that fact, shoehorning clips and tributes throughout the show and reuiniting the cast to present awards. We get it. Chicago was a great movie. Ten years ago.

I thought Seth MacFarlane did really well and it was smart of him to acknowledge how thankless a job it is to host the Oscars. The monologue dragged a little, but his Sound Of Music gag was a particular favorite. Overall: thumbs up.

And I like that the ceremony was full of surprise moments like Daniel Day-Lewis's charming acceptance, Jennifer Lawrence being adorable, Quentin Tarantino's sweaty, rambling speech, and a tie for Best Sound Effects Editing.

I'm already looking forward to next year!
  

Oscars 2013

Hey! Oscar Night is Sunday and I haven't posted my picks yet!  Let's rectify that.

Best Picture: Argo
Best Director: Steven Speilberg
Best Actor Daniel Day-Lewis
Best Actress: Jennifer Lawrence
Best Supporting Actor: Tommy Lee Jones
Best Supporting Actress: Anne Hathaway
Best Original Screenplay: Django Unchained
Best Adapted Screenplay: Argo
Best Animated Feature: Wreck It Ralph
Best Foreign Language Film: Amour
Best Film Editing: Argo
Best Cinematography: Life of Pi
Best Production Design: Les Miz
Best Hair & Makeup: The Hobbit
Best Costumes: Anna Karenina
Best Song: Skyfall
Best Score: Life of Pi
Best Visual Effects: Life of Pi
Best Sound: Les Miz
Best Sound Effects Editing: Zero Dark Thirty

I took each category on its own merits and it looks like I've picked Argo, Lincoln, Les Miz, and Life of Pi to each take home three awards.  It's highly unusual for one film not to stand out.

As usual, I don't pick the shorts or documentary films because I normally don't get to see them ahead of time. But if I had to make an unofficial guess, I'd pick Paperman for Animated Short.

There it is! Under the wire! Enjoy the show on Sunday night!

Oscar Night Post-Mortem

Well, I had a pretty good Oscar night!  I correctly picked 15 out of 19, which is a 79% success rate.  Here's how it turned out (I've asterisked my correct picks):


Best Picture: The Artist*
Best Director: Michael Hazanavicius, The Artist*
Best Actor: Jean Dujardin, The Artist*
Best Actress: Meryl Streep, The Iron Lady
Best Supporting Actor: Christopher Plummer, Beginners*
Best Supporting Actress: Octavia Spencer, The Help*
Best Original Screenplay: Midnight In Paris*
Best Adapted Screenplay: The Descendants*
Best Editing: The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo
Best Cinematography: Hugo
Best Score: The Artist*
Best Song: "Man or Muppet" The Muppets*
Best Art Direction: Hugo*
Best Costumes: The Artist*
Best Makeup: The Iron Lady*
Best Sound: Hugo*
Best Sound Editing: Hugo*
Best Visual Effects: Hugo
Best Foreign Language Film: A Separation*


I didn't pick the Short Film, Documentary, or Animated Feature categories, but here's who won:


Documentary Feature: Undefeated
Documentary Short: Saving Face
Live Action Short: The Shore

Animated Short: The Fantastic Flying books of Mr. Morris Lessmore
Animated Feature: Rango


I probably could have picked Rango, but all the others would have ruined my average. I dodged a bullet there.


It was a good show - Billy Crystal never disappoints and it moved quick.  Tributes and montages were kept to a minimum, there were no musical performances, and the thing Cirque Du Soleil was entertaining.  It was a lean, entertaining show. I had fun this year, even without writing a series of long blog posts. I can't wait for next year's Oscar season where, no doubt, I will be rooting for The Hobbit.
 

Artistic Awards

The nominees for Best Cinematography are The Assassination of Jesse James, Atonement, The Diving Bell and the Butterfly, No Country, and There Will Be Blood. Roger Deakins has been denied an Oscar despite over a dozen nominations and this year he has two shots - for Jesse James and No Country. Still, I think he will get beat again, this time by Atonement, a movie that manages to make a bombed-out beach look as gorgeous as an English manor. Plus, there was that virtuosic 5-minute tracking shot that involved a cast of thousands.

Best Art directions pits the fantastical and dark (Sweeny Todd and The Golden Compass) against modern (American Gangster) and historical styles (Atonement and There Will Be Blood). I think Atonement will take this one for showing a wide variety of set designs - from a stately country estate to the grungy ruins and triage hospital of WWII France.

In the Best Costumes category, the more ffantastical and outrageous costumes always trump subtlety. Atonement, Across The Universe, and La Vie En Rose each had a great variety of costumes, but they pale in comparison to the Victorian goth look of Sweeny Todd and the outrageous Elizabethan garb in Elizabeth: The Golden Age. I predict that the team from Elizabeth will take the prize.

The three nominees for Makeup are La Vie En Rose, perennial nominee Rick Baker for Norbit, and Pirates 3. Norbit's achievement really is its makeup and Pirates 3 is impressive, but the makeup team from La Vie En Rose transformed Marion Cotillard into Edith Piaf in every stage of her life, from her 20's through her 60's. It was just as important to creating the character as Cotillard's fine acting and I think it will get recognized.

Best Supporting Actor

As with many categories this year, the Best Supporting Actor race features a diverse array of nominees, from fresh faces to veterans. Casey Affleck's youth may be his biggest impediment to winning for The Assasination of Jesse James..., but he does have a secret weapon - a well-reviewed lead performance in his brother Ben's directorial effort Gone Baby Gone. Voters will likely see him in that movie while they're reviewing their screeners for Amy Adams' nomination. Philip Seymour Hoffman is going for his second Oscar, for Charlie Wilson's War, but his is only one of two for that movie. Even though Hoffman is a well-respected actor's actor, only two nominations could mean a lack of support for his movie. Tom Wilkinson is no stranger to Oscar movies and his broad, operatic role in Michael Clayton is an actor's dream come true. On top of that he earns points for doing an accent. Wilkinson's biggest impediment might be his competition - Javier Bardem is the odds-on favorite, having won the Golden Globe and the Screen Actor's Guild Award. His performance may be short, but he steals the whole movie and his stoic killer character has been compared to Hannibal Lechter. On top of that, Spaniard Bardem performs his role entirely in a foreign language. But hold on! Hal Holbrook is also in the running and may cause a huge upset. He is a well-respected actor who has been in the business for decades and is currently enjoying his first nomination. Holbrook looks poised to take the award not for his performance in Into The Wild, but as a defacto lifetime achievement award. My pick goes to Bardem but I'm watching out for Holbrook to upset. All it will take is one profile on