Oscar Picks 2015

It's time again for my Oscar predictions! This year we have a good mix of tight races and sure things. Here's how I see it going:

Best Picture: Birdman
Best Director: Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu, Birdman
Best Actor: Michael Keaton, Birdman
Best Actress: Julianne Moore, Still Alice
Best Supporting Actor: J. K. Simmons, Whiplash
Best Supporting Actress: Patricia Arquette, Boyhood
Best Original Screemplay: The Grand Budapest Hotel
Best Adapted Screenplay: The Imitation Game
Best Editing: Boyhood
Best Cinematography: Birdman
Best Score: The Theory of Everything
Best Song: "Glory" from Selma
Best Production Design: The Grand Budapest Hotel
Best Costumes: The Grand Budapest Hotel
Best Makeup: The Grand Budapest Hotel
Best Sound Editing: American Sniper
Best Sound Mixing: American Sniper
Best Visual Effects: Interstellar
Best Animated Feature: How to Train Your Dragon 2
Best Foreign Language Film: Ida
Best Documentary Feature: Citizenfour

This year's sure things are Supporting Actor, Supporting Actress and Best Song. I'm most nervous about my pick for Best Actor - the Oscar always goes to whomever won the Screen Actors Guild award and this year it went to Eddie Redmayne. But I think the Academy will break the trend and give it to Keaton for his decades of solid work and a fantastic technical and emotional turn in Birdman.

Best Picture and Director have also been up in the air between Boyhood and Birdman and many predict that the categories will split, but I think the Academy will side with Birdman's flashier production and conceit over Boyhood's more low-key, cerebral tone.  Besides, Hollywood people love stories about actors. That's largely why Shakespeare in Love beat Saving Private Ryan back in 1998.  Boyhood's major strengths are in its writing and editing.

If it goes as I predict, Birdman and The Grand Budapest Hotel will each win four Oscars, Boyhood will earn three, American Sniper will take both Sound categories and the rest of the hardware will be distributed evenly among seven other movies. As usual, I don't pick short films.

My fingers are crossed, but I can only hope to match last year's 91.5% success rate. Be sure to tune in on Sunday, February 22nd at 7pm Eastern Time! I'm expecting a great show from Neil Patrick Harris (who could turn out to be the next Billy Crystal) and, even though she wasn't an official part of the ceremony, I hope to see at least one tribute to Joan Rivers.

Enjoy the show and I'll post here with the results after the Oscars!

 

Oscar Predictions 2014

It's Oscar season again and it's time to make my picks. There are some really close races this year and a few others that are shoo-ins. Some leaders have emerged and other big races are still up in the air. It should be interesting. Here are my predictions:

Best Picture: 12 Years a Slave
Best Director: Alfonso Cuaron, Gravity
Best Lead Actor: Matthew McConaughey, Dallas Buyer's Club
Best Lead Actress: Cate Blanchett, Blue Jasmine
Best Supporting Actor: Jared Leto, Dallas Buyer's Club
Best Supporting Actress: Lupita N'yongo, 12 Years a Slave
Best Original Screenplay: Her
Best Adapted Screenplay: 12 Years a Slave
Best Cinematography: Gravity
Best Film Editing: Gravity
Best Sound Mixing: Gravity
Best Sound Effects Editing: Gravity
Best Score: Gravity
Best Song: "Let it Go," Frozen
Best Art Direction: The Great Gatsby
Best Makeup: Dallas Buyer's Club
Best Costumes: American Hustle
Best Animated Feature: Frozen
Best Foreign Language Film: The Great Beauty, Italy
Best Documentary Feature: The Act of Killing

As usual, I don't get to see the Short Film nominees, so I don't pick those.

The top three contenders this year are 12 Years a Slave, Gravity and American Hustle and, as you can see, I've picked Gravity to take 6 categories, but not Best Picture. It will likely sweep the technical categories and be recognized for its direction, but I suspect that 12 Years a Slave will edge it out for Best Picture. It's unusual for the Best Picture not to get the highest number of Oscars, Best Director, or the Film Editing Oscar, but that's how I see it going this year.

The big story is the emergence of Dallas Buyer's Club in the acting races. McConaughey and Leto have been picking up prizes all award season and are expected to finish big, overshadowing higher-profile performances from Chiwetel Ejiofor and Bradley Cooper.

I'll be watching on Sunday, March 2nd and hope you will too. The official pre-show begins at 7pm EST on CBS but E! will be broadcasting arrivals all day long. It should be an exciting show and I hope to match or beat last year's 76% success rate.  Enjoy the show!

 

Oscars 2012

Oscar Night is my favorite holiday of the year and I usually celebrate online by writing in-depth reviews of the Best Picture nominees and explaining my picks in exacting detail here on the blog.  A lot of work and thought goes into the process ever year, but I've had this conversation too many times:

Friend: "So what do you think of the Oscars this year, Doug?"

Me: "I've been publishing all of my opinions and picks online for the last month. Haven't you been reading my blog?"

Friend: "No."

As much as I love writing them, the exhaustive string of blog posts just doesn't get read and all anyone really wants to hear about is who is going to win.  So here are my final picks for this year's Academy Awards:

Best Picture: The Artist
Best Director: Michael Hazanavicius, The Artist
Best Actor: Jean Dujardin, The Artist
Best Actress: Viola Davis, The Help
Best Supporting Actor: Christopher Plummer, Beginners
Best Supporting Actress: Octavia Spencer, The Help
Best Original Screenplay: Midnight In Paris
Best Adapted Screenplay: The Descendants
Best Editing: The Artist
Best Cinematography: Tree of Life
Best Score: The Artist
Best Song: "Man or Muppet" The Muppets
Best Art Direction: Hugo
Best Costumes: The Artist
Best Makeup: The Iron Lady
Best Sound: Hugo
Best Sound Editing: Hugo

Best Visual Effects: Rise of the Planet of the Apes
Best Foreign Language Film: A Separation


As always, I don't pick documentaries or short films, because I don't get to see most of them during the year and can't make an informed decision. This year, the same goes for Animated Feature, a category which features two films that have yet to get wide release and (for the first time since the category was established) no Pixar entry. I feel surest about the Actresses, least secure about the technical awards, and am pretty sure that The Artist will charm its way to the top spot and receive five other awards, but not Best Original Screenplay. The movie with the most nominations, Hugo, is also a marketing nightmare and will walk away with a respectable three statuettes.

Several prognosticators predict a win for George Clooney, but I think Jean Dujardin will be named Best Actor. The closest we have to a lock this year is Christopher Plummer for Supporting Actor.

I'm making some pretty daring picks this year in other categories. The visuals in Hugo blew me away, but I think Tree of Life's artistic camera work will impress voters more and will win the Cinematography prize. Harry Potter 7b was last year's highest-grossing movie, but I'm predicting that Planet of the Apes will best it for Visual Effects and The Iron Lady's prestige will vault it ahead of Potter for Best Makeup. I usually don't pick a Foreign Language film, but I'm taking a guarded chance this year with Iran's A Separation, which is the clear favorite.

We can all see how my predictions pan out on Sunday, February 26. Tune in to ABC at 7pm EST for the red carpet (or E! will have coverage all day if you want an early start).

 

Best Supporting Actress

The race for Best Supporting Actress features a wide variety of performances this year. Young Saoirse Ronan got her nomination for a brief but intense performance in Atonement and Amy Ryan put forth an equally intense performance as a grieving mother in Gone Baby Gone. In both cases, I think age will work against them, especially considering the veterans who fill out the category. Cate Blanchett (the only previous winner in this group) plays electric-era Bob Dylan in I'm Not There - a role she shares with several other actors and a clever bit of casting that yielded a bravura performance. If she wins, she will be the second person to win an Oscar for playing a character of the opposite gender (Linda Hunt was the first). This could also be her second win for playing a prominent 20th-Century performer. We shouldn't count out nominee #4, Ruby Dee. Age and experience are always a factor in an Oscar race and sometimes voters will choose the veteran receiving her first nomination over the more challenging performance. I call this the "She was due" argument. Also known as the "Don Ameche Effect." Filling out the category is Tilda Swinton, who plays a reluctantly amoral corporate spokeswoman in Michael Clayton . There are a few reasons why I think she will win. First, the British actress pulls off an excellent American accent. Second, she is the most fully-formed, human character in the bunch. Swinton reveals her character's tough, polished exterior and, in private moments, her regret, fear, and insecurity. Finally, even though she has supporting screen time, she actually has the leading female role in the Michael Clayton cast. Amy Ryan may also claim that distinction, but I think Swinton's performance will get recognized. The vast majority of the voting body is actors and Michael Clayton is clearly an acting showcase above all else. My pick goes to Tilda Swinton.