Atonement

If Juno features young characters too willing to abandon their childhoods and bravely face the consequences, then Atonement features the opposite - a young girl is thrust onto an adult situation she is unprepared for and spends a life of regretting her actions. Thirteen-year-old Briony Tallis lives a life of privelage and posesses the rich imagination and fantasy life of a writer. A series of misunderstandings lead her to the mistaken judgement of local boy Robbie Turner. The misunderstandings turn tragic when Briony is asked to be the sole eyewitness to a horrible crime that she blames on Robbie, half-understanding that he is innocent, but convincing herself nonetheless. Briony's sister, Celia was in love with Robbie and the false accusation changes all three lives with dire results. The regret cuts Briony so deeply that years later, even in her fantasies, she doesn't let Celia and Robbie forgiver her.

Atonement is up for seven Academy Awards and actually has a shot a a few of them. The best bet is for music - Dario Marianelli's brilliant score features a typewriter as a percussion instrument, perfectly signifying Briony's dangerous fantasy life at precise moments in the film. It also has a good shot at Cinematography, most notably for the virtuosic five-minute tracking shot that involves a quarter mile of beach and a cast of thousands. Art Direction was also great in Atonement and will probably win. Less likely to come to fruition are Atonement's nominations for Costume Design, Adapted Screenplay, and Supporting Actress where it is simply outmatched by its competition. As for Best Picture, it does feature many things Academy voters traditionally gravitate toward: an epic storyline, a romantic plot, a period setting, people with accents, war scenes, and a prestigous literary adaptation. It might just take the top prize, but its lack of a nomination for Best Director is a serious hit, showing that while the Academy might recognize it as the best looking film of the year, it will not nescessarily be named the Best Picture.

Best Supporting Actress

The race for Best Supporting Actress features a wide variety of performances this year. Young Saoirse Ronan got her nomination for a brief but intense performance in Atonement and Amy Ryan put forth an equally intense performance as a grieving mother in Gone Baby Gone. In both cases, I think age will work against them, especially considering the veterans who fill out the category. Cate Blanchett (the only previous winner in this group) plays electric-era Bob Dylan in I'm Not There - a role she shares with several other actors and a clever bit of casting that yielded a bravura performance. If she wins, she will be the second person to win an Oscar for playing a character of the opposite gender (Linda Hunt was the first). This could also be her second win for playing a prominent 20th-Century performer. We shouldn't count out nominee #4, Ruby Dee. Age and experience are always a factor in an Oscar race and sometimes voters will choose the veteran receiving her first nomination over the more challenging performance. I call this the "She was due" argument. Also known as the "Don Ameche Effect." Filling out the category is Tilda Swinton, who plays a reluctantly amoral corporate spokeswoman in Michael Clayton . There are a few reasons why I think she will win. First, the British actress pulls off an excellent American accent. Second, she is the most fully-formed, human character in the bunch. Swinton reveals her character's tough, polished exterior and, in private moments, her regret, fear, and insecurity. Finally, even though she has supporting screen time, she actually has the leading female role in the Michael Clayton cast. Amy Ryan may also claim that distinction, but I think Swinton's performance will get recognized. The vast majority of the voting body is actors and Michael Clayton is clearly an acting showcase above all else. My pick goes to Tilda Swinton.