Best Supporting Actress

Welcome to Oscar Season 2011!  With cool young hosts, popular movies getting lots of nominations, and some difficult races, it looks to be a great show this year.  To be honest, I don't expect to do as well with my picks as last year, but I'll certainly have fun trying and I hope you'll have fun reading my posts.  Let's  jump right in with Best Supporting Actress:

This years Supporting Actress race features Amy Adams and Melissa Leo (The Fighter), Helena Bonham Carter (The King's Speech), Hailee Steinfeld (True Grit), and Jacki Weaver (Animal Kingdom).  All are strong performances, but as the least-high profile nominee, I suspect that Jacki Weaver will have a tough time in this race.  Bonham Carter was good, but her competition all had bolder performances and more aggressive characters.  Leo and Adams are in the same movie and their votes will likely get split, but there's a chance that voters will get behind Melissa Leo. 

More likely is a win for young Hailee Steinfeld. She is, technically, the female lead in True Grit and gives a bold, focused performance, holding her own against some heavyweight Hollywood veterans.  Her movie has been popular and well-reviewed, but her age is a serious factor - the Academy doesn't give awards to kids lightly.  The best thing she can do, now that she's been nominated, is to campaign like crazy. She needs to go on talk shows and show everyone that she isn't at all like her character and prove that she's an actress in whom the Academy can invest its votes. If she doesn't do that, Melissa Leo, an actress who already has Academy respect, will have the edge.

I'm picking Steinfeld, but we'll see how the campaigning pans out.

Best Supporting Actress

Let's jump right in to the big awards.

This one's pretty simple, really.  The nominees are Penelope Cruz in Nine, Vera Farmiga and Anna Kendrick in Up In the Air, Maggie Gyllenhaal in Crazy Heart, and Mo'Nique in Precious.

Here's how it will go down: Cruz got the sole acting nomination in a film that banked on its on-screen talent and lost - critics hated it and audiences didn't show.  Farmiga and Kendrick will likely cancel each other out.  Gyllenhaal is the surprise nominee here for a movie that's really all about Jeff Bridges.  Then there's Mo'Nique - a comedian known for loud, broad slapstick (Soul Plane, TV's Moesha) who nailed a powerful dramatic role.  She shocked audiences enough to win every major award this year so far and is a clear favorite for the Oscar.

Jim Carey is probably crying himself to sleep these days.

Traditionally, we look for a lead actress who has supporting screen time to win here.  Someone like Meryl Streep in Kramer Vs. Kramer or Marissa Tomei in My Cousin Vinny, or Marcia Gay Harden in Pollock (I could go on).  If that were the case, it would probably be Anna Kendrick's year, but Mo'Nique's story, the surprising depth of her performance, and her ability to give a good acceptance speech will likely get her to the podium on Oscar night.

Best Supporting Actress

"Two-time Oscar-winner Marissa Tomei."

That has a nice ring to it.

Yes, I'm picking Marisa Tomei to win another Oscar for Supporting Actress - and she'll win for the same reasons that earned her her first statuette. In the Supporting Actress category, I always look for the lead actress with supporting screen time. She was nearly the only woman on screen in My Cousin Vinny, technically making her the lead actress. Same goes for Jennifer Connelly in A Beautiful Mind and Kim Bassinger in L.A. Confidential, just to name a few.

This year, Amy Adams was overshadowed by Meryl Streep in Doubt and Viola Davis only had the one scene in that same movie. Taraji P. Henson is second in Benjamin Button to Cate Blanchett and Penelope Cruz is dynamic, but shares the screen with a whole cast of women. Marissa Tomei, on the other hand, is the female lead in The Wrestler. Her performance may not have the same intensity as Davis's or Henson's, but she shows a raw, gritty vulnerability. If Kate Winslet had been nominated here instead of Lead Actress, I would have picked her, but it's all to Tomei's advantage. Hopefully this will quiet those who felt her first Oscar was a mistake.